Mauldin- recession now a 50% chance

http://www.2000wave.com/article.asp?id=mwo042707
"The homeowner vacancy rate rose to a new all-time high, even as rental vacancy rates fell slightly. Overall home ownership in the US is falling and is now at a three-year low. Including new homes under construction, there are a total of 2.5 million homes vacant, which is well over 3% of the total of the US housing stock (77.2 million non-rental homes). "
He notes that it will adversely impact spending by reducing on home improvements, furniture and appliances, and building materials: it will adversely impact housing-related employment which was up 50,000 jobs a month during the boom and is now an increasing drag on employment; there is a clear drag on household wealth, where there is an estimated 9 cents of consumer spending for each dollar in the increase in the value of a home; and, the boost from mortgage equity withdrawal (MEW) is reversing. The largest part of MEW came from the realization of capital gains as homes were sold. "The only source of MEW that remains strong is cash-out refinancing," Hoyt notes.
"It should be pointed out that spending from the wealth effect and MEW impact spending with a lag. The wealth effect is understood to play out over about two years. Spending from MEW occurs more quickly, but can still take up to three quarters."